Sunday, October 15, 2017

Why Canada should buy the F-35 Lightning II


Overview


It has been a while since Justin Trudeau cancelled the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lighting II from the Conservative Government plan to acquire the new fighter to replace Canada's aging fleet of CF-18s. A lot has changed for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program for the US. The United States Air Force and United States Marine Corps have declared the plane initially operational and has been deployed around the world. It is currently capable of combat. Many errors have been found while trying to get it to Block 3F, it's full operational configuration, and is soon getting there.

The airplane is a Mach 1.6 stealth fighter with advanced avionics systems which is known as "5th Generation." It is designed to replace or supplement many fighters in the US arsenal such as the F-16, AV-8B Harrier and F/A-18 Hornet. The plane is designed with stealth in mind, along with a sensor fusion suite that is highly automated and linked to complicated software upgrades similar to our modern smart phones and computers. It is specialized in Beyond Visual Range combat with missiles along with stand off strikes such as Interdiction and Close Air support and can be used for advanced ISR.

The Canadian people along with Trudeau made a decision to drop the F-35 as a sole buy, however the program to replace the CF-18 is still in place with a competition with the Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, Saab Gripen, the Boeing Super Hornet(which are 4th Generation Fighters) along the F-35 which will be competing as well. Lockheed Martin been heavily pushing the aircraft around the world, and since the cancellation, Japan, South Korea, Denmark and Israel have all signed on the Joint Strike Fighter Program, to buy the airplane.

 Many criticize the F-35 as being a poor interceptor with slow speeds compared to many other aircraft which they say is more suited to patrolling vast Canadian airspaces. Also they say that the weapon is primarily a weapon for offensive purposes with it's stealth capabilities and not needed for the Royal Canadian Air Force's primary role for patrolling the North despite being part of NATO. Along with those criticisms, they say the plane is too expensive along with the fact it is not fully operational yet, may pose many risks. Others use it as a way to say the Canadians have become too reliant on the United States and needs to diversify its assets.

With all this in mind the F-35 still in my opinion offers many great options that the Canadian people should not ignore. It is probably the most advanced candidate Canada could buy, with it's advanced capabilities and sensor suite. It offers also a flexible supply chain for many other nations are buying, along with costs that worth it, for a lot of them are being produced compared to it's competitors. The plane will last longer in the US arsenal compared to other of the fighters in the world, taking the life far beyond 2050. Many nations in the world have all decided the risk is worth it and have signed on the program included the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Israel and Australia. Although the program had major setbacks in the 2000s, the program is definitely back on track. I am in the opinion that Canada should completely replace the CF-18 fleet with the F-35, however if not, Canada at least should consider buying it for a mixed fleet. 

   So here are the many reasons why Canada should consider the F-35 Lightning II.


   Advanced Sensors and Tactical Advantage


    


Unlike most fighters the F-35's sensor suite is second to none. Canada is the world's second largest nation and the use of long range sensors is a must in order detect threats and give coverage to mass depth of airspace. Lets go over some of the capabilities it could do. 

The APG-81 AESA radar made by Northrop Grumman which is the F-35's radar is one of the most advanced radars in the world. Like most fighters, radar is often the primary sensors to detect other threats and lock on weapons to those targets. However, the F-35's AESA is much more different. All the current Canadian competitors have the new advanced AESA technology the US had on their fighter jets in the 2000s(like the F-15 and Super Hornet) which uses multiple arrays to form versatile radar patterns, however teh APG-81 takes it a step further. Normal radars are the largest antenna on a fighter, mainly used to detect other targets while other smaller sensors like radar warning receivers, jammers, and communication antennas serve a secondary role. The APG-81 takes this further and thanks to advanced software and computer systems it can use its array to be used as a jammer and a communication system. Since the radar is the largest antenna on fighters, now that it is a jammer as well, it can have higher gain for more efficient electronic attack. The F-35's jamming capability is rated 10 times of that of the EA-6B Prowler used by the USMC which is a dedicated jamming aircraft(which uses the same jammer systems as the US EA-18G Navy's Growler) while the F-35 is just meant to be a regular fighter. 



Besides it's powerful radar, the F-35 has advanced infrared sensors as well. Traditional fighters mainly use systems such as infrared search and track(IRST) for finding targets in the sky, and targeting pods for designation and targeting(mainly for air-ground but air-air also). With the F-35 both functions are done by the Electro-Optical Targeting System(EOTS). It is a optical sensor under it's nose which can be used for air-air and air-ground and both an IRST system and replaces targeting pods like the SNIPER pod which had to be attached to fighters as an offboard system.

EOTS, the F-35 also has an IRST system known as the DAS which is a system of IR cameras around the airplane. The information can all be cued into the pilot's helmet so it will allow the pilot to see 360 and see through the airplane. The system a traditional Missile Warning System is indeed an IRST system and can zoom and scan in on targets. It can also do ground ISR gathering looking for targets like enemy forces, SAM launches or the launchers, along with ballistic missiles.

And with datalinks, the F-35 not only has Link-16 like traditional NATO aircraft but has a high transfer rate broadband link called the MADL. This provides a faster rate, stealthier, more jam proof communication system that offers a much more clearer sensor fusion. With the F-35 large quantities and information can transferred between F-35's and other platforms. Not only is it sensor fusion with one aircraft, but entire groups of aircraft all linked together in real time on a network. Automated Radars and jammers and can coordinate much better with this system making faster decisions such as cooperative jamming and counter-jamming and to get a tactical edge over the enemy. All this gives a huge advantage in a Beyond Visual Range missile battle where the F-35 can evade enemy missiles more effectively and shoot more accurately.

Lastly, the F-35 does have stealth, it's obvious characteristic. Yes, many of Canadians think having said this capability is "not needed" for Canada "does not need a first strike fighter" Stealth obviously does not just give advantage to strike but also in air superiority for radar is the primary sensor still in air-air engagements. With stealth, it give many strategic and tactical benefits like sneaking on enemies, avoiding enemy lock-on in a Beyond Visual Range engagement, detecting enemy emissions better(since you can get closer), jamming better(you are harder to detect, so jamming performance is increased), and giving the enemy less probably of kill for his active radar homing missiles seekers.

Interoperability



The United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, Italy, Australia, Denmark, Norway, Israel, Japan and South Korea all plan on buying the F-35 Lighting II. Most are either NATO partner nations or major US allies. Governments officials in many nations like Finland, Poland, Greece, Belgium, Germany, and Taiwan all hear what the fighter can do from their allies, and maybe considering purchasing the aircraft. For those who are buying, many of them have already gotten their first F-35s to go on base for training and integration. From major reports the F-35 is a fine fighter whether you ask the Americans, the British, the Dutch or the Israelis. The nations' airmen and government accountants have all decided that the aircraft is worth the risks and have already integrated a large chunk of their military to using it. The United Kingdom is already building their on STOVL aircraft carrier to use F-35Bs, and Turkey is also building theirs.
The idea of nations using the same aircraft comes at a huge advantage. Supply chains don't have to be as diversified and those using the same aircraft on the same base can use the same equipment. This means cutting the cost of nations' logistics crew and making operations go a whole lot simpler. How does that fit in a Canadian perspective? Canada is a NATO member and operates all around the world. Having an aircraft that can not only use the same supply chain, but also lets say can operate similar to the aircraft of nine nations not only gives a strategic advantage but a tactical advantage as well. US crews familiarized on the airplane can also  give their expertise on plane and maybe even help operate the plane in some circumstances. 

Also, using the F-35 gives Canada a whole array of weapons not seen on all the RCAF fighter candidates. Since many nations are using the plane, they will have all order all sorts of different weapons to chose from for their F-35s, adding diversity to the F-35 unlike the other competitors. For example, unlike the Super Hornet, which is a frontrunner in the Canadian fighter competition, which only uses the American AIM-120 AMRAAM air-air missiles as the primary BVR missile for shooting down enemy aircraft, the Europeans have invested in a new missile known as the Meteor which increases the No-Escape Zone of modern missiles by adding ramjet propulsion and will be integrated on European fighters like the Typhoon, Rafale and Gripen, however also on the F-35. Furthermore, the Meteor is about to get nastier as the Japanese add AESA seekers to a missile called the JNAAM, which is a joint UK and Japanese project based on a hybrid of the Meteor and Japanese AAM-4B, and aimed specifically to be integrated on the F-35. The Americans are also developing their own advanced missile like SACM and MSD for the F-35 and unlikely they will be available on the European designed fighters.

Along with air-air missiles the F-35 have a choice of a whole armament of bombs and air-ground weapons. Example like JDAM GPS Bomb, HARMs Anti-Radiation Missile, and JAASM cruise missile, and LRASM anti-ship missile. The European competitors don't have the capability to choose from this diversity of weapons.(for example France cannot use JDAM which is in the Canadian arsenal, Typhoon cannot use HARM etc) With all these available, Canada can buy them to quickly use on their F-35s. 


Upgrades


The F-35 unlike Cold War designed fighters is has advanced computer systems that is very up upgradable with modern standards. The F-35 software design is similar to modern smartphones which have an integrated relationship between customer and designers. Lockheed Martin plans to have upgrades to be rolled out quickly, and have software changes quickly installed on customer nation's F-35s. The F-35's ALIS is a system the F-35 uses on the ground to track maintenance requirements, make upgrades, and send customer feedback to Lockheed Martin. With the rate of computer technology advances, upgrades in software can be quickly upgraded like a Iphone. And with software upgrades, new hardware can be made possible like better computer chips, better radars, better avionics. The US is also looking future weapons like Hypersonic Strike Weapons and laser weapons all to be integrated on future fighters like the F-22 and F-35 as early as the 2020s.


Like the interoperability of the F-35, the upgrades an advantage as well in the supply chain. Since the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Israel all need aircraft to fight their wars, they will put heavy R&D on the F-35 to make it viable up viable up to 2065. This spreads out a lot of reasearch costs to many nations rather than cost to just a few nations. Canada may avoid all the heavy cost of developing for example new radars and engines. One of the many faults with Eurofighter program for example, was that it was there was too little partner nations so upgrades were too slow. The F-35 is funded by a superpower but many nations that are at hotspots of the world.

Canada still being a member of the F-35 Program, is not only able to compete for the industrial contracts for Canadian F-35s if they do buy them, but also be part of the global supply chain. Companies can see the life cycle of the F-35 as a good investment and open new Canadian jobs to help supply the F-35. If there is desire for parts and software upgrades, Canadians can take the advantage of the getting into that ongoing technology business. It would be a shame if the F-35 was not bought and Lockheed Martin withdraws Canada like it would do if fighters are not bought.



Political Power


The F-35 is not only a airplane but a symbol of political power through many nations. It's menacing stealth features and advanced features is what allied nations want if they are near a hotspot against rival nations like Russia, China, Iran or North Korea. It was the F-35's capabilities that South Korea wanted to take on the North and similar for why Israel bought it for facing Iran. Buying the F-35 will send a message of to Russia which Canada sees as an geopolitical opponent.

Since the ouster of the pro-Russian government in Ukraine, the more pro-EU government has been more open to free trade with Western nations especially with Canada. The Ukrainian government has been friendly to both the Conservative and Liberal government of Canada. Canada has also a large immigrant population from Ukraine, so support for the homeland is strong.
Canada being a top world economy must keep it's military in top shape to be an important player and have respect as a power. Canada has been a major player in the role to deter Russian aggression such as sending military aid to Ukraine to deal with the pro-Russia separatists and also sending CF-18 Hornets to the NATO operations in Eastern Europe. The F-35 buy sends a larger message, as the world's most powerful multirole fighter will on Russia's doorstep.

Russia's ambitions don't lie with just Eastern but also the Arctic. The melting of ice caps has caused vasts pieces of undiscorvered territory to found. Russia has been increasingly putting it's military assets in the arctic and doing drills there. Both Canada and the United States do not have clear arctic strategy but should be ready to face increasingly Russian presence there. Multiple bomber intercepts have been done near Alaska and Canada by NORAD. Russia is stepping up it's game flying Su-35 Fighters there as well. Canada should be ready for anything.

Besides Russian aggression, Canada should also focus other NATO threats such as Iran and Syria. These nations have advanced Surface to Air Missile Systems that purchased from Russia such as the S-300. These missiles have advanced radars and very long range missiles that can cover lots of airspace. Using an advanced aircraft with high tech sensors and jammers is important to deal with such a threat. The American have the Suppression of enemy air defenses(SEAD) experience from multiple conflicts from Vietnam such as Vietnam, Gulf War and the Libyan Civil War. It's experience is built from using a legacy of aircraft from such as the F-4G Wild Weasel, F-16CJ, and E/A-18G Growler. The F-35 continues that legacy as it replaces SEAD systems like the Air Force's F-16CJs and the Marine's Prowler jammer aircraft. Remember I mentioned the F-35's electronic warfare capabilities. Keep in mind, that other NATO nations were very reliant of US SEAD aircraft in the Libyan conflict. Using a powerful airplane that can do the job just as well will lessen that reliance.

Conclusion

This gives a good reason why Canada should think about buying the F-35 Lightning II. Yes I understand the F-35 is still not completed there to it's Block 3F Full capabilities, however the program is on track and all the nation's airmen have put their full confidence in the program and doing  well to train with the fighter and find any problems that need fixes. The funding for the program is on track and the American military is still investing heavily on future buys. The F-35 faced off in Red Flag earlier racking up a 20;1 kill ratio against aggressors and have flied with the British and French in Exercise Atlantic Trident where both the United Kingdom and France with their Typhoons and Rafales, were very impressed and plan to operate alongside it in the future. Remember exercises like Red Flag don't just practice air battles, but also takes in consideration of logistics and maintenance, aircraft must be capable of conducting timely sorties and good reliability in order to succeed in Red Flag and the F-35 has shown to be capable of conducting reliability, completing the majority of the sorties in combat environments despite not using the final software.

The F-35's kinematics are also a complaint, it can only fly Mach 1.6 and doesn't turn as well as an F-22. Yes the F-35 lacks Mach 2 however, most fighters cannot fly their top speed weapons and fuel tanks due to drag. The F-35 carries all it's fuel and weapons internally and suffers no drag penalty. So where is a F-16 that can go Mach 2, will only be able to push Mach 1.4 with tanks and weapons, the F-35 loaded full fuel and weapons can still fly Mach 1.6. It can do what the CF-18 can do, such as reach long ranges and fly to intercept, which is the basis for the Canadian missions. As for the agility, the plane doesn't turn like an F-22, but it just as good as fighters like the F-16, F-15 and F/A-18, if not slightly better. The F-35's main advantage would be BVR combat rather than dogfighting.

Yes, the F-35 is expensive, this understandable. However the individual costs have gone done below $100 million which is around similar price to its competitors like the Rafale and Eurofighter. As said a lot of R&D costs are paid by other nations and Canada does not have to bear the brunt of paying the researching for new technology. Also, since so many nations are buying parts and that is a larger supply chain, it will potentially cheaper to maintaining it, or at least more at least a larger bang for the buck.
The first image above does give give a good idea of the cost to fly per hour for different airplanes now by IHS Jane's, and yes the F-35 is expensive to fly now, but total life cycle cannot cannot ignored. When adding the total life cycle of the F-35, such as when supplies become more available and technology becomes more mature and easier to use, along with larger quantities of aircraft supplies not directed to just flight hours, the operating costs don't be so different to aircraft like the Super Hornet and Eurofighter, as pictured in the second picture above. Furthermore, legacy aircraft pose a larger risk according to the picture since they may be phased out sooner and used by fewer air force putting the costs of development of upgrades on a few nations.

Furthermore, keep in mind, the "quantity vs quality" argument for fighters doesn't apply much for these modern fighters. Canada can't buy much more fighters for the same price of F-35s since it simply won't have the pilots to fly or the supply crews to operate them or enough weapons and their maintainers to arm them. So quantity vs quality argument from the competitors doesn't apply much. Below is an example of the USAF cost of running their Air Force. Personnel costs(MILPERS) take a huge chunk of the chart while cost of flight hours are less important weapon costs and staff to run the air force

With all of this aside and the information presented, in the end, the F-35 is ultimately a good program to invest in and has gained so much ground from its early failures. I think that Canada has a great opportunity to look into this aircraft for the benefits I showed above. Canada is looking to buy used Australian F/A-18 Hornets now before it makes any clear decision on a CF-18 replacement. I understand there are fears of risks of the F-35 still having problems, however this is unlikely to happen, at least not ones that would stop operations from happening and missions being unsuccessful. 

The Eurofighter, the Rafale, the Gripen and the Super Hornet are all good fighters that Canada should take a look into as well. However, the time to move on to something different is here. The times have changed and technology is advancing and I am sure many of those aircraft's same operators think so. So in conclusion Canada should buy the F-35 or at least buy it for a mixed fleet.








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